Time for automated decision forecasting? — LessWrong
Ever since I read Scott Alexander’s “The AI superforecasters are here,” I have been excited by the possibility of experimenting with using automated superforecasting for decision-making, or as I wrote about previously, automated decision forecasting/forecasters (ADF[1]). Decision forecasting is already an advertised option on the front-page of FutureSearch. The premise of automated decision forecasting is that when a user faces a decision, they would tell the ADF their overall goal and the options they are considering. The ADF would then forecast how likely the user is to achieve their goal if they choose each option. For example, a user would input their desired goal and options, “I want to be hired for a role in AI safety by March 1st 2027”, and “I am deciding between applying to x, y, and z fellowship.” The ADF would then think through everything it knows about these fellowships…
